History & New Technology

New technology kicked off the first Industrial Revolution.  Historians may debate its actual starting point, but there is no doubt that the perfection of James Watt’s steam engine in 1782 played a key role in its expansion.  Before this, work in Olde England was mostly performed in agrarian cottage industries.  People made their living as weavers, seamstresses, candle makers and blacksmiths.  The introduction of Watt’s steam engine displaced thousands of these manual jobs.

Consequently, labor moved into factories.  The resulting growth in productivity gave rise to industrial centers.  The potential for exporting surplus goods called for rail and sea transport, which in turn created transportation hubs and financial centers.  Where a comparative handful of manual jobs were lost in this transition to new technologies, millions of new and diverse jobs were created.

Industrialization in America began around the same time, but by the 1870s half of the American population was still involved in farming.  Continued mechanization of agriculture after the Civil War, however, freed people to go off and do other jobs.  Today just 2% of the American population is involved in farming and the agricultural output far surpasses what it did 150 years ago.

In addition to agriculture, another American industry decimated by new technology was whaling.  At its height in 1846, whaling was the fifth largest sector of the American economy.  The industry boasted 742 vessels – more than the rest of world combined times three.  It employed tens of thousands of people and was worth hundreds of millions of dollars in ships, outfits and cargos.  To serve the fleet globally, scores of American outposts were established throughout the world in Atlantic and Pacific harbors.  Just 50 years later, however, the industry was dead.

The reason?  Electricity. 

In addition to bone, meat, and ambergris for perfume, one of the key by-products of whaling was oil.  Many American cities and most American homes at the time used whale oil to light their streets and their lamps.  In 1879, however, the city of Cleveland became the first in America to light its streets with electric arc lamps invented by Charles Brush.  In just a decade, his invention transformed street lighting throughout the world.

In the same year, the California Electric Company in San Francisco became the first to sell electricity to home-consumers, which eventually put an end to the need for whale oil.  However, despite the huge number of jobs displaced, the world is certainly a better place without the whaling industry, and the number of new jobs created through the launch and distribution of electricity is immeasurable.

The fear of computers displacing jobs took hold 100 years later.  When the earliest computers and robots appeared in offices and on factory floors, President John F. Kennedy prophesied that one major challenge of the 1960s would be to “maintain full employment at a time when automation…is replacing men”.  The later appearance of desktop computers in the 1980s, thanks in large part to people like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, amplified these worries. 

Among the earliest casualties of computerization were jobs in the banking industry.  Front-line tellers, long-accustomed to taking deposits and cashing checks, were easily displaced by ATMs.  By 1988, the number of bank tellers was reduced by almost 50% in most American branches. 

However, the reduced cost of running a branch allowed banks to open more branches.  Rather than being displaced, bank teller roles were remixed by ATMs.  As a result, their work focused less on routine tasks, and more on sales and customer service – things that the new machines were unable to do.

At no point in history has there ever been mass unemployment resulting from the introduction of new technologies.  In fact, it has actually been the opposite.  New technologies have created new jobs that had previously been unimaginable.

The same lessons hold true for our current transition to automation.  According to Manpower Group’s 2017 report on upskilling for the future, 65% of the jobs that will be performed by Generation Z (those born after 1996) have not yet been invented.  Companies today are already hiring for positions that did not exist just five years ago.  Who could have previously dreamed that their children would be getting jobs as Social Media Marketing Specialists or Geo-Immersive Data Producers (read: Google Maps Drivers)?

The World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Report 2018 also presents a positive outlook for future employment.  By 2022, while 75 million jobs may be displaced by automation, another 133 million new roles may be created as labor adapts to the new interface between people and machines.

Many jobs performed by humans today can and should be displaced just as new technology displaced whaling jobs in the 19^th century.  Jobs that are methodical (accounting), routine (electronics assembly), dangerous (mining) and degrading (trash & hazmat removal) could be performed more efficiently and safely by robots and computerization. 

When this happens, the workplace becomes a more socially active, relationship-based environment.

And this is why communication skills will be among the most critical for the future workplace.