History & New
Technology
New technology
kicked off the first Industrial Revolution.
Historians may debate its actual starting point, but there is no doubt
that the perfection of James Watt’s steam engine in 1782 played a key role in
its expansion. Before this, work in Olde
England was mostly performed in agrarian cottage industries. People made their living as weavers,
seamstresses, candle makers and blacksmiths.
The introduction of Watt’s steam engine displaced thousands of these
manual jobs.
Consequently,
labor moved into factories. The
resulting growth in productivity gave rise to industrial centers. The potential for exporting surplus goods
called for rail and sea transport, which in turn created transportation hubs and
financial centers. Where a comparative
handful of manual jobs were lost in this transition to new technologies,
millions of new and diverse jobs were created.
Industrialization
in America began around the same time, but by the 1870s half of the American
population was still involved in farming.
Continued mechanization of agriculture after the Civil War, however,
freed people to go off and do other jobs.
Today just 2% of the American population is involved in farming and the
agricultural output far surpasses what it did 150 years ago.
In addition to
agriculture, another American industry decimated by new technology was whaling. At its height in 1846, whaling
was the fifth largest sector of the American economy. The industry boasted 742 vessels – more than
the rest of world combined times three. It employed tens of thousands of people and
was worth hundreds of millions of dollars in ships, outfits and cargos. To serve the fleet globally, scores of
American outposts were established throughout the world in Atlantic and Pacific
harbors. Just 50 years later, however,
the industry was dead.
The reason? Electricity.
In addition to
bone, meat, and ambergris for perfume, one of the key by-products of whaling
was oil. Many American cities and most
American homes at the time used whale oil to light their streets and their
lamps. In 1879, however, the city of Cleveland became the first in America to light its
streets with electric arc lamps invented by Charles Brush. In just a decade, his invention transformed
street lighting throughout the world.
In the same year,
the California Electric Company in San Francisco became the first to sell
electricity to home-consumers, which eventually put an end to the need for
whale oil. However, despite the huge
number of jobs displaced, the world is certainly a better place without the
whaling industry, and the number of new jobs created through the launch and
distribution of electricity is immeasurable.
The fear of
computers displacing jobs took hold 100 years later. When the earliest computers and robots appeared
in offices and on factory floors, President John F. Kennedy prophesied that one
major challenge of the 1960s would be to “maintain full employment at a time
when automation…is replacing men”. The
later appearance of desktop computers in the 1980s, thanks in large part to
people like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, amplified these worries.
Among the
earliest casualties of computerization were jobs in the banking industry.
Front-line tellers, long-accustomed to taking deposits and cashing
checks, were easily displaced by ATMs.
By 1988, the number of bank tellers was reduced by almost 50% in most
American branches.
However, the
reduced cost of running a branch allowed banks to open more branches. Rather than being displaced, bank teller
roles were remixed by ATMs. As a result,
their work focused less on routine tasks, and more on sales and customer
service – things that the new machines were unable to do.
At no point in
history has there ever been mass unemployment resulting from the introduction
of new technologies. In fact, it has
actually been the opposite. New
technologies have created new jobs that had previously been unimaginable.
The same lessons
hold true for our current transition to automation. According to Manpower Group’s 2017 report on upskilling for the future, 65% of the
jobs that will be performed by Generation Z (those born after 1996) have not
yet been invented. Companies today are
already hiring for positions that did not exist just five years ago. Who could have previously dreamed that their
children would be getting jobs as Social Media Marketing Specialists or Geo-Immersive
Data Producers (read: Google Maps Drivers)?
The World
Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Report 2018 also presents a positive outlook for future
employment. By 2022, while 75 million
jobs may be displaced by automation, another 133 million new roles may be
created as labor adapts to the new interface between people and machines.
Many jobs
performed by humans today can and should be displaced just as new technology
displaced whaling jobs in the 19th century. Jobs that are methodical (accounting),
routine (electronics assembly), dangerous (mining) and degrading (trash &
hazmat removal) could be performed more efficiently and safely by robots and
computerization.
When this
happens, the workplace becomes a more socially active, relationship-based
environment.
And this is why communication skills will be among the
most critical for the future workplace.